New years predictions

New years predictionsPredicting the future is a mugs game, as Andy wrote in our book, but here it goes with new years predictions as is customary at this time of year….

Energy supply

  • There will be no power cuts in the UK this year, although it will tight.
  • EDF will not sign a deal to go ahead with Hinkley C this year, although it will still be theoretically on the cards at the end of this year. Whilst the supposed deal was supposed to have been signed and sealed and looked likely to go ahead with work according to EDF starting in November. However, nothing has happened and the same has been said every year since 2008.
  • Little will happen on the fracking front in the UK this year, the economics are terrible and the agro too great.
  • Electricity and gas prices will not fall this year, strange how the price of electricity has not come down since the wholesale gas price has fallen. My gas prices have come down a bit, but at the moment I’m not expecting more.

Renewables

  • The government will not quite kill renewables stone dead. It looks like ground mounted PV maybe viable subsidy free and the domestic roof PV might just be worth going with since the cuts to the FIT weren’t as bad as was feared. The government are battling Brussels over the EU’s ridiculous insistence on a sales tax rate of 20% rather than 5%. This it seems to me is more important but is more likely to be a battle that is lost.
  • Amber Rudd was threatening the off-shore wind industry a few weeks ago but they seem quite optimistic in the paper the other day with some very large investments still going to go ahead.

Oil prices

  • Now sanctions are over with Iran they are looking to double their output over the next 6 months. This will add to the oversupply and should depress prices. As will more signs of an economic slowdown in China. However, in recent days there has been big trouble between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The big Sunni/Shiite split is getting worse by the day. If more than the current proxy wars break out then all bets are off with very high prices certain. The problem with predicting the oil price is that there so many factors pulling in opposite directions.

Transport

  • Electric cars will continue to increase in sales dramatically, but from a very low level. The UK government interestingly have not cut their very large subsidy for electric cars.

Climate change

  • More signs that climate change is upon us will become apparent this year. 2015 was the warmest year since records began and 2016 looks likely to beat it. Once in 100 year floods are now happening every year and its a pretty safe prediction they will happen in 2016.

Economics

  • No global crash this year (although early signs have not been encouraging), we are storing that up for another year since the banks have not really been sorted out.

Christians and the environment

  • Safe bet on here. Most Christians will not take any more interest in the environment, energy or climate and it will remain a minority pursuit in most churches. After all Paris had it sorted didn’t it? Goodness knows what it will take to shift this outlook.

Incidentally I’ve had a look at my new year resolutions from a year ago and managed to do something on every area.

Happy new year

Neil

This entry was posted in climate change, Creation, energy costs, Fracking, oil prices, Peak oil, Uncategorized and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>