Electric revolution 9 years on

EV salesElectric revolution 9 years on.  About 9 years ago I went to a Scottish parliament renewable energy group meeting on electric vehicles.   This was based around a report that had just come out on future UK sales.  Yesterday we found this in a sort out.  Its very interesting to look back at what has happened in the last 9 years with the benefit of hindsight.

First a few general points.

  • Diesels were seen as a good idea in 2009.
  • The oil price was much higher in 2009.

The scenarios are based on a number of criteria and the report gives a heap of these.  However sales of EV’s taking hybrids and pure electric vehicles are way behind where they were forecast in 2009.

This is not down to EV’s.  Sales seem to be ahead of where they are forecast.  Its a bit difficult to read the point on the graph in their report for 2018 but total sales were forecast to be 261,000 in 2o30.  Sales were over 10,000 last year and have been even better this year so far.

The report has contradictory things to say on the oil price effect but this has been shown to have little effect on sales of EV’s recently.  What was forecast was the price of batteries would have a huge effect.  They did not make a forecast price as such due to the variability in the estimates but did say that £100/kWh from 2012 would have a huge effect on sales. Prices are currently higher than this.

Deployment of solar/wind has consistently beaten all expectations (and continues to do so).  Car sales have not.  What has changed is the expectations.  All governments and manufacturers have huge EV targets and battery prices are plunging.  While not totally ideal the electric revolution in transport is coming.




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