{"id":1,"date":"2012-06-26T08:01:56","date_gmt":"2012-06-26T08:01:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=1"},"modified":"2013-08-01T09:55:22","modified_gmt":"2013-08-01T08:55:22","slug":"hello-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=1","title":{"rendered":"Is Peak oil a myth?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Peak Oil – Myth or Reality?
\nIs the world running out of oil or are are we entering a future with a glut of the stuff?\u00a0 And what are the environmental consequences if we are?\u00a0 This is the question raised in a recent article by George Monbiot in the Guardian<\/a>
\nHis views seem to have been altered by a report from Harvard which can be read here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Firstly, perhaps we should say we agree with George that, from a climate change viewpoint, we need to leave fossil fuels in the ground (we return to this argument later).\u00a0 We also agree that many people have wrongly predicted peak oil.\u00a0 It is worth saying at this point that the (wrong) prediction by the first person to study peak oil, M.K.Hubbert which Monbiot references in the article was later revised after the 1970s oil shock.\u00a0 An interview with Hubbert on this subject can be seen on YouTube.\u00a0 The sound quality and his accent make it hard to follow but basically he says the peak has been shifted back by about 10 years which takes it to about 2000ish…<\/p>\n

The report referred to by George seems to us to be based on the usual mismash of optimistic data put about particularly by the US Geological Survey.\u00a0 This organisation has a long-standing reputation for being very optimistic about oil (and other resources) which goes all the way back to Hubbert\u2019s 1956 lecture.\u00a0 The Maugeri report is also very optimistic about Middle Eastern reserves particularly Saudi Arabia.\u00a0 There is plenty of evidence suggest these countries conflated their reserves in the 1980s, this has been picked up in the wikileaks saga<\/a> also see<\/a> and this<\/a>.<\/p>\n

As I (Neil) look at the latest BP statistical review of world energy with country after country showing falling production I\u2019m left wondering can so many regions turn round and start producing more oil?\u00a0 It’s possible, but seems unlikely.\u00a0 Can Iraq produce as much oil as is suggested when there is still so much violence?\u00a0 The IEA World energy output reports in recent years have suggested conventional crude production has peaked in about 2005 (not far from Hubbert’s revised estimate) and that any gap has to be made up from biofuels, new discoveries and unconventional oil.\u00a0 Why was Fatah Birol their chief economist so pessimistic on ABC\u2019s “The Science Show” (23\/4\/11)?\u00a0 His view is that over the next 25 years we need to find 4 Saudi Arabias to just maintain current demand, this report does not suggest this is possible George.\u00a0 Some of the recent discoveries such as of Brazil seem huge until you divide them by the daily demand, they then last less than a year…<\/p>\n

Leonardo Maugeri also ignores another vital aspect of this issue which we cover in some detail in our forthcoming book, that is the energy return on energy invested.\u00a0 To put it simply it takes energy to make energy (not a scientific way of explaining it, but a practical way).\u00a0 There is another way of expressing this, as Rob Hopkins puts it, the upside of the peak is not the same as the downside of the peak.\u00a0 If you imagine an oil production peak as a bell shaped curve then on the way up to its summit you use easy to extract sweet light crude.\u00a0 On the way down you use harder to extract unconventional oil, this takes more energy to recover and the net energy return is lower.\u00a0 Hopefully you see where this is going.\u00a0 We are taking a lot more energy to extract oil, gas and coal (and minerals such as copper) than we were a century ago.\u00a0 At the beginning of the last century gushers gave \u00a0 us a ratio of 100:1 return in the 1960\/70s this had dropped to around 30:1 and is now at 12-20: (oil from tar sands gives only a marginal return on the energy invested and\u00a0 unconventional gas and oil are likely to be less than 10:1). The same pattern is seen in coal and gas and arguably uranium.\u00a0 Thus to stand still we deplete faster.<\/p>\n

We\u2019d make two last points; firstly on daily oil production.\u00a0 You get different figures quoted, but daily conventional production is about 77mbd.\u00a0 The figure of 93mbd quoted by Monbiot includes unconventional oil, gas, biofuels and shale oil.\u00a0 BP quote a figure of 83mbd, this excludes liquid fuels from other sources such as biomass and coal derivatives.\u00a0 Secondly, we return to global warming, whilst it is certainly true there is enough carbon fuels to fry us, (Neil\u2019s) hope is that peak oil would at least raise the prices of all conventional fuels meaning renewables could take up some of the slack and people would use less energy.\u00a0 Depressing, isn\u2019t it, that to save us from climate change we would have to cope with another major crisis.\u00a0\u00a0 Its possible we are wrong but looking at all the evidence we are going to stick our necks out and say we are at the top of the peak for conventional oil production – in fact a plateau from about 2005 to date.\u00a0 Only time will tell, and we\u2019ll see after 2015.<\/p>\n

Neil and Andy<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Peak Oil – Myth or Reality? Is the world running out of oil or are are we entering a future with a glut of the stuff?\u00a0 And what are the environmental consequences if we are?\u00a0 This is the question raised … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-peak-oil"],"yoast_head":"\nPeak Oil - Myth or Reality?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Peak Oil - Myth or Reality? Is the world running out of oil or are are we entering a future with a glut of the stuff?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=1\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=1\",\"name\":\"Peak Oil - Myth or Reality?\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2012-06-26T08:01:56+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2013-08-01T08:55:22+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/#\/schema\/person\/b6f2831189b0d01294e9672bb540ba6f\"},\"description\":\"Peak Oil - Myth or Reality? Is the world running out of oil or are are we entering a future with a glut of the stuff?\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=1#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=1\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=1#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Is Peak oil a myth?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/\",\"name\":\"The oil lamp - shining God's light on peak oil\",\"description\":\"Blogging by Neil and Andy about Peak oil and faith.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/#\/schema\/person\/b6f2831189b0d01294e9672bb540ba6f\",\"name\":\"admin\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/2070f70411f2eab27f08cd0b2332e27e3987c781423ecba6c16b575181ce2a6a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/2070f70411f2eab27f08cd0b2332e27e3987c781423ecba6c16b575181ce2a6a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"admin\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?author=1\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Peak Oil - Myth or Reality?","description":"Peak Oil - Myth or Reality? Is the world running out of oil or are are we entering a future with a glut of the stuff?","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=1","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"admin","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=1","url":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=1","name":"Peak Oil - Myth or Reality?","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/#website"},"datePublished":"2012-06-26T08:01:56+00:00","dateModified":"2013-08-01T08:55:22+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/#\/schema\/person\/b6f2831189b0d01294e9672bb540ba6f"},"description":"Peak Oil - Myth or Reality? Is the world running out of oil or are are we entering a future with a glut of the stuff?","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=1#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=1"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=1#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Is Peak oil a myth?"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/","name":"The oil lamp - shining God's light on peak oil","description":"Blogging by Neil and Andy about Peak oil and faith.","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/#\/schema\/person\/b6f2831189b0d01294e9672bb540ba6f","name":"admin","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/2070f70411f2eab27f08cd0b2332e27e3987c781423ecba6c16b575181ce2a6a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/2070f70411f2eab27f08cd0b2332e27e3987c781423ecba6c16b575181ce2a6a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"admin"},"url":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?author=1"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11,"href":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1\/revisions\/11"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}