{"id":1941,"date":"2013-04-19T14:53:46","date_gmt":"2013-04-19T13:53:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=1941"},"modified":"2013-06-27T16:28:54","modified_gmt":"2013-06-27T15:28:54","slug":"one-thing-we-have-learnt-this-week-24","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=1941","title":{"rendered":"One thing we have learnt this week"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Is what&#8217;s left of our oil and gas overvalued?\u00a0 This is what <a href=\"http:\/\/www.guardian.co.uk\/environment\/2013\/apr\/19\/carbon-bubble-financial-crash-crisis\" target=\"_blank\">Nicolas Stern<\/a> and others (even analysts from HSBC seem to agree) think.\u00a0 The theory goes that the world will act on climate change accept that it cannot burn all the remaining reserves and move away from gas and oil.\u00a0 This means what&#8217;s left is not worth nearly as much.\u00a0 Therefore there maybe another financial crash.\u00a0 The almighty big assumption is we act rationally (from the environmental view) and do this.\u00a0 At the moment despite a huge increase in renewables the world is not making a very good job of cutting <a href=\"http:\/\/www.guardian.co.uk\/environment\/2013\/apr\/17\/why-cant-we-give-up-fossil-fuels\" target=\"_blank\">emissions<\/a>.\u00a0 The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.renewableenergyworld.com\/rea\/news\/article\/2013\/04\/renewables-are-bright-spot-in-bleak-low-carbon-outlook?cmpid=WNL-Friday-April19-2013\" target=\"_blank\">IEA<\/a> have reported that energy carbon intensity has dropped only very slightly in 20 years.<\/p>\n<p>So why is this?\u00a0 One suggestion made in a book by Mike Berners-Lee and Duncan Clark (link above to article by them) is that the countries cutting emissions at home are exporting coal, oil and gas elsewhere.\u00a0 This must be partly true, but even China is making strenuous efforts to switch to renewables.\u00a0 To me it doesn&#8217;t completely explain the dichotomy.\u00a0 I also don&#8217;t completely accept their dismissal of peak oil (although they actually don&#8217;t completely dismiss it).<\/p>\n<p>There are three possible ways thing could go in my view.<\/p>\n<p>1) Stern <em>et al<\/em>. are right in 2015 there is a legally binding climate agreement and oil and gas prices crash.<\/p>\n<p>2) We go on burning all the unconventional stuff and fry ourselves.\u00a0 All the\u00a0unconventional stuff has to work in this scenario.\u00a0 What I mean be that has to take less energy to extract than we think it will.<\/p>\n<p>3) Somewhere in between 1) and 2).\u00a0 Conventional oil production has peaked (this is true of all three scenarios). \u00a0 The oil price continues ever upwards.\u00a0 Unconventional oil and gas depletes the remaining easily extracted oil and gas faster, unconventional oil and gas having a very low energy return (giving a price feedback loop).\u00a0 Whether this scenario heads off a 2 degree rise depends on how rising prices force lifestyle change.\u00a0 There is some modest evidence to back up lifestyle changes in 3) with driving and fuel sales having apparently peaked in the UK and US.<\/p>\n<p>Neil<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Is what&#8217;s left of our oil and gas overvalued?\u00a0 This is what Nicolas Stern and others (even analysts from HSBC seem to agree) think.\u00a0 The theory goes that the world will act on climate change accept that it cannot burn &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=1941\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1941","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-one-thing-we-have-learnt-this-week"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.8 - 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