{"id":2774,"date":"2013-08-14T20:34:26","date_gmt":"2013-08-14T19:34:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=2774"},"modified":"2014-03-31T13:54:05","modified_gmt":"2014-03-31T12:54:05","slug":"population-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=2774","title":{"rendered":"Population"},"content":{"rendered":"

We wrote about population in the economics chapter of our book “No oil in the lamp”.\u00a0 A week or so ago I read a very provocative post on the site “Seedbed”<\/a> on population.\u00a0 Its with some trepidation I blog on this subject matter, since its a minefield.\u00a0 You don’t have to move too far into it and you are in the highly controversial areas of abortion, contraception and eugenics.<\/p>\n

There are a number of criticisms of Adam Roe’s article I would make.\u00a0 The first is that people are not worried about population.\u00a0 As we wrote in our book this is not true at all.\u00a0 We cite a number of different writers and reports in our book that show continuing concern about the earth’s rising population. Amongst them is the “Christian Medical fellowship”<\/a>.\u00a0 As good background reading on this issue this short paper is recommended.\u00a0 There are a number of projections made about the population to come, the range used by the UN is from 7.7 to 10.5 billion.\u00a0 This is a significant increase in population from (roughly) 6.5 billion now by anyone’s standards.\u00a0 Whilst the rate<\/em> of population growth increase is plummeting in dozens of countries, but there is lag in the system since many humans of reproductive age are now born. In addition Adam Roe’s analysis of what is happening in the USA is only partially correct.\u00a0 Whilst the birth rate has fallen slightly below replacement level (taken as 2.1 births) its still high by developed country levels at around about 2.08. births.\u00a0 Live births are in any case not the whole story you have to take immigration into account.\u00a0 Both the relatively high replacement rate and immigration are expected to increase the US population from\u00a0 317 million today to nearly 500 million in 2050.\u00a0\u00a0 See this reference<\/a> for full details.<\/p>\n

This brings me to the next criticism – this time implicit rather than explicit, that endless economic growth is possible.\u00a0 This is why in our book this subject was raised in the economic chapter.\u00a0 All the 1.2 to nearly 3 billion extra mouths need to be fed, watered and provided with energy.\u00a0 Something the CMF paper raises, being surprisingly peak oil aware.\u00a0 As we have blogged on and raised repeatedly on our Facebook page there is growing realisation we are facing a global food crisis (there are updates on this in the new ebook).\u00a0 All are not equal- a baby born in Africa currently uses many less of the worlds resources than one born in the West.\u00a0 As we have tried to get across in our book, endless growth of the type we have now is simply not possible as we bump up against physical limits.<\/p>\n

I’ve got more to say to criticise this article but this is for another post.<\/p>\n

Neil<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We wrote about population in the economics chapter of our book “No oil in the lamp”.\u00a0 A week or so ago I read a very provocative post on the site “Seedbed” on population.\u00a0 Its with some trepidation I blog on … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,28,3],"tags":[273],"class_list":["post-2774","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-faith","category-other","category-peak-oil","tag-other"],"yoast_head":"\npopulation<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We wrote about population in the economics chapter of our book "No oil in the lamp". 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