{"id":3005,"date":"2013-09-27T15:42:36","date_gmt":"2013-09-27T14:42:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=3005"},"modified":"2013-09-27T15:42:36","modified_gmt":"2013-09-27T14:42:36","slug":"one-thing-learnt-week-energy-price-freeze","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=3005","title":{"rendered":"One thing we have learnt this week-energy price freeze"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>At the labour party conference this week, Ed Milliband announced an energy price freeze on gas and electricity prices for 20 months.\u00a0 This will happen if labour win the election whilst legalisation is put through parliament to create a new regulator and break up the big six energy suppliers.\u00a0 This has energy in the news, as it rarely is and a real debate going. The 4 billion pound question (literally) is, is this a good idea?<\/p>\n<p>The first thing to ask is how have we got there?\u00a0 The regional electricity and gas boards were privatised by Mrs Thatcher.\u00a0 Part of British Energy (nuclear) was sold off later.\u00a0 Essentially we have ended up with six energy suppliers (four being foreign owned &#8211; ironically by European state owned energy companies).\u00a0 There are apparently as many 80 small suppliers, but these have less than 2% of the customers.\u00a0 The big six have vertically integrated businesses i.e.\u00a0 they generate the electricity and sell it to customers.\u00a0 They have a reputation for colluding on prices, making excessive profits and having until recently a huge number of complicated tariffs.\u00a0 The regulator OFGEM (Office for gas and electricity) is rightly regarded as fairly useless.<\/p>\n<p>After privatisation the price of energy fell but this coincided with the peak in north gas production.\u00a0 The big six built a lot of gas powered power stations so the price of electricity fell.\u00a0 The amount the consumer compared to incomes spent on energy also fell in line with this gas production. By the way an excellent background to this can be seen here at <a href=\"http:\/\/makewealthhistory.org\/2013\/09\/25\/is-freezing-energy-bills-a-good-idea\/#respond\" target=\"_blank\">&#8220;Make Wealth History&#8221;<\/a>.\u00a0 However, since 2004 as gas production started to fall prices have risen.\u00a0 In 2004 I was paying 6.8p\/unit for electricity (which had not changed for years) and about a penny a unit for gas*.\u00a0 Now I&#8217;m paying 16.4p\/unit for electricity and 5.06p\/unit for gas.\u00a0 In 2008 wholesale electricity prices soared as gas prices linked to the record oil price soared.\u00a0 Most of the price increases in my bills have taken place since then.\u00a0 In 2011 my gas bill went up by 30%. There have been only modest drops in bills since then which have been more than made up for by subsequent increases.\u00a0\u00a0 Right wing commentators try to blame increases on renewables, but the bulk of the price rises are due to the fact that we have to increasingly buy gas on international markets.<\/p>\n<p>Back to our original question.\u00a0 Is this a good idea?\u00a0 The first thing is to say as a labour supporter I can see where the party are coming from.\u00a0 I slightly disagree with &#8220;Make wealth history&#8221; about the implications of the % of consumer spend being lower than it was 40 years ago.\u00a0 Energy is both too cheap and too expensive.\u00a0 To explain, I once went round to one very wealthy family that used to go my church, every light was on in every room (occupied or not) in every house plus a number of coal effect electric fires.\u00a0 For this family energy was clearly too cheap.\u00a0 However, every article I read or see on TV about food banks brings the price of energy into the reason why so many families (often working) are struggling with their bills.\u00a0 It not just the price of energy that has soared but also food as well.\u00a0 For millions of people the price of energy is too expensive.\u00a0 Despite this I&#8217;m worried.\u00a0 My concerns about this policy are as follows;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The big six will push up prices more in the next two years if they think labour can win.\u00a0 This will clearly undo the good the policy is meant to do.\u00a0 There is little the Labour government could do about this except legislate for a price cut?\u00a0 There is a danger at the end of the 20 month period that prices could increase dramatically, although the idea is to use this period to tighten the regulation when the freeze is over so that price increases are smaller and more in line with costs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Related to this what if there is a big increase in the wholesale gas price over this 20 month period?\u00a0 Ed Milliband is reported as saying today that the companies would be allowed to increase their prices if this happened.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>There are all sorts of dire warnings about companies leaving these shores and the lights going out etc. due to this policy.\u00a0 These can be ignored.\u00a0 In fact two of the big six have cheekily started offering price freeze deals until 2017 today!\u00a0 One put their advert thus &#8220;Don&#8217;t wait for Ed&#8230; &#8220;.\u00a0 Just slightly undermining their arguments.\u00a0 If there are blackouts in this period its because of what&#8217;s happening now.\u00a0 At the moment companies are closing coal fired plant and not investing in enough new capacity.\u00a0 There is distinct reluctance to build gas storage (two schemes dropped this week) and invest in any new gas powered generation (not a dramatic endorsement of shale gas).\u00a0 Companies are desperate not to use gas to generate electricity since its too expensive.\u00a0 Hence a big increase in imported coal from the US and electricity from Europe over the last year.\u00a0 On-shore wind is getting so much resistance in planning that very little is being built.\u00a0 OFGEM have already warned that the lights may go out.\u00a0 However, anything that\u00a0 creates uncertainty for long term energy investment cannot be welcomed.\u00a0 This may make the lights more likely to go out <em>after<\/em> 2017.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>We need to de-carbonise our economy for both climate and energy security reasons.\u00a0 How does fit in with a price freeze? Labour say almost half of new energy investment is not from the big six and in any case the present governments guaranteed prices &#8220;contracts for difference&#8221;\u00a0 will give certainty on investment decisions.\u00a0 (This is certainly true of PV which is booming judging by the first six months figures for 2013.)\u00a0 It seems to me that this would introduce more uncertainty though and hence reduce investment in renewables.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>What about energy efficiency?\u00a0 There is only one way to get people to conserve and that is higher prices.\u00a0 We badly need a huge programme of home insulation etc. At the moment renewables are becoming more and more viable as their prices fall and energy prices rise.\u00a0 Freezing or lowering prices will make this trend slower.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Its missing the point.\u00a0 The days of cheap energy are behind us permanently.\u00a0 Governments, consumers, business and energy companies have yet to accept this, much less come up with a solution.\u00a0 There are a number available but the best way of protecting the poorest is in our view is the introduction of Tradable energy quotas (or TEQ&#8217;s). This is described in some detail in our book but in my view this (or something like it) will have to be introduced.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>This investment uncertainty will be heightened by part of Milliband&#8217;s announcement that has been almost completely ignored.\u00a0 However, this is something I think is essential- that is breaking the big six up.\u00a0 At the moment all them generate electricity and then sell it to themselves then us (this is less true of gas).\u00a0 I&#8217;m with one of the 80 tiny energy suppliers but their billing is handled by one of the big six, according to this big six supplier via my bill, they only make a 3% profit on their electricity.\u00a0 However, this ignores the generation profits.\u00a0 Separating the two sides of their business would introduce competition and transparency and would in my view lead to modest falls in prices (or at least slower increases).\u00a0 It would also allow new entrants to the market (the other 80) to get their hands on gas and electricity at reasonable rates and grow.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Does this mean there is no need for our book.\u00a0 By no means.\u00a0 The energy crisis also involves transport, food and materials.\u00a0 The price of these is rising and will by unaffected by any price freeze on electricity or gas.\u00a0 To summarise I can understand the reasoning but think this policy idea is not going achieve what its meant to and is bypassing the issue.\u00a0 Could be good politics in the short term though&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>* gas rates were always more complicated because there were several rates depending on how much you used.<\/p>\n<p>Neil<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>At the labour party conference this week, Ed Milliband announced an energy price freeze on gas and electricity prices for 20 months.\u00a0 This will happen if labour win the election whilst legalisation is put through parliament to create a new &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=3005\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3005","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-one-thing-we-have-learnt-this-week"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.8 - 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