{"id":3483,"date":"2014-01-06T16:28:06","date_gmt":"2014-01-06T15:28:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=3483"},"modified":"2014-09-03T21:20:08","modified_gmt":"2014-09-03T20:20:08","slug":"implications-of-a-steady-state-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=3483","title":{"rendered":"Implications of a steady state economy"},"content":{"rendered":"

What are the implications of a steady state economy?\u00a0 As part of a occasional series of alternative economics I want to look at some what in my view are pressing economic questions based around peak oil. In Third Way magazine<\/a> Nick Spencer wrote an article about “Welfare” and the church, or I as I would prefer to call it “Social Security”.\u00a0 I’m not sure I agree with his ultimate conclusion- but that is not the point of this blog post.<\/p>\n

The point is can we afford health and social security in a post oil world with a steady state economy?\u00a0 Our whole economic system is built around the idea of constant economic growth.\u00a0 This is course impossible to maintain forever as we looked at in our book<\/a>.\u00a0 What happens when we run out of growth?\u00a0 The problem is that health inflation<\/a> generally outpaces the general rate of economic growth in the economy.\u00a0 The reasons for this are pretty obvious.\u00a0 In the West most people are living longer and new treatments are being developed, so our expectations rise.\u00a0 If you like we are victims of our own technological prowess.<\/p>\n

Its conceivable that when the ecological crisis hits, as has happened when the 2008 crash hit this demand for increased health and social security will carry on going up.\u00a0 By the way the type of system we have providing this is immaterial.\u00a0 It all still has to paid for as part of GDP somehow.\u00a0 Personally I like the “socialist” system we have in the UK.\u00a0 Its health outcomes<\/a> are better than the US and its despite its large bureaucracy probably more efficient.\u00a0 For example we get very large purchasing economies of scale on drugs and other products.\u00a0 However, that’s by and by.\u00a0 The problem will be common to all systems in both the US and UK.\u00a0 Health and social security has to be paid for somehow. The question is how?<\/p>\n

One possibility is to tax people more.\u00a0 This is something I support, especially the rich.\u00a0 In the UK its hard to think of a tax that has risen over the last thirty years apart from sales tax (VAT) which is regressive anyway.\u00a0 This can be only a medium term solution.\u00a0 However high you raise taxes there are ultimate limits.\u00a0 It delays the crunch point.\u00a0 Another partial solution is that the fact that many of our health problems in the West have lifestyle causes.\u00a0 Type II diabetes and obesity would be helped by more expensive food and more exercise. \u00a0 Both of these seem more likely in a post oil world so much of the pressure on our current health systems would be slowly eased.\u00a0 On social security we need to maintain very high levels of employment.\u00a0 Its clearly difficult to totally calculate the job gains and losses of peak oil.\u00a0 Many jobs will disappear (such as airline jobs) but off-shoring will come to an end and agriculture may become de-mechanised.\u00a0 Its not impossible to imagine high employment levels, although in the UK most of this bill goes on pensions.<\/p>\n

One country that is given as an example in transition circles is Japan.\u00a0 Over two decades it purportedly\u00a0 underwent very little economic growth.\u00a0 Japanese society seemed\u00a0remarkedly unaffected.\u00a0 Its health outcomes improved.\u00a0 However, some people question whether its economic situation was as dire<\/a> as was made out.\u00a0 The lesson if true was one of choices, how the Japanese government planned to spend what money it had.<\/p>\n

This is probably another aspect of peak oil to which there is no ultimate solution.\u00a0 We will have to learn to live within our new means and lower our expectations. \u00a0 If you have any other ideas please fell free to suggest them…<\/p>\n

On this happy thought -happy new year!<\/p>\n

Neil<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What are the implications of a steady state economy?\u00a0 As part of a occasional series of alternative economics I want to look at some what in my view are pressing economic questions based around peak oil. In Third Way magazine … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3483","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-peak-oil"],"yoast_head":"\nsteady state economy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"What are the implications of a steady state economy? 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