{"id":4060,"date":"2014-05-20T22:03:13","date_gmt":"2014-05-20T21:03:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=4060"},"modified":"2014-05-20T22:03:13","modified_gmt":"2014-05-20T21:03:13","slug":"peak-oil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=4060","title":{"rendered":"peak oil again"},"content":{"rendered":"

Back to peak oil, a few weeks ago I came across this link<\/a> somewhere.\u00a0 In it the person called Patrick from Belgium takes you through the steps to calculate peak oil for yourselves using a spreadsheet.\u00a0 This looked too good to miss so I thought I would give it ago.\u00a0 The link above describes the steps.\u00a0 I followed these and ended up with two graphs shown below.\u00a0 Graph a) shows the total global oil production in numbered quarters between the dates given.\u00a0 The second graph has one difference US oil production is removed.\u00a0 This completely alters the result with oil production on a firm downward trend.<\/p>\n

\"peak<\/a><\/p>\n

At the moment there is not that much talk about peak oil, but a lot about Saudi America. Even the transition movement seems a bit quieter about it.\u00a0 We think there is lot of hype about shale oil, there being a number of problems with its extraction and how fast the wells deplete.\u00a0\u00a0 There is no doubt at the moment oil production globally is increasing and this is driven by US oil production. The question is will this last?\u00a0 As we wrote in our book<\/a> about the shale oil hype;<\/p>\n

“However, even if this is true, this is forecast as being for an extraordinarily short period of time, only for 5 years from 2020-2025. A related finding is that of the US becoming a net oil exporter in 2030. This is predicated on \u201cnew fuel-efficiency measures in transport<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n

Has global oil production peaked?\u00a0 Conventional oil – almost certainly.\u00a0 All the easy stuff has gone.\u00a0 There are number of alternative scenarios based around unconventional oil.\u00a0 The first is that oil production increases due to US shale oil for a number of years and then as US production declines we reach peak oil, in probably less than 10 years.\u00a0 The second is that other countries join in with shale oil and peak oil is set back again. All this time conventional fields are in decline and unconventional oil has to keep pace with both that and increasing demand.\u00a0 Either way the oil price looks like staying high, you might notice that for all this increase over the last 35 quarters or so there has been no significant drop in the oil price.<\/p>\n

Neil<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Back to peak oil, a few weeks ago I came across this link somewhere.\u00a0 In it the person called Patrick from Belgium takes you through the steps to calculate peak oil for yourselves using a spreadsheet.\u00a0 This looked too good … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4060","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-peak-oil"],"yoast_head":"\npeak oil again<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Back to peak oil, a few weeks ago I came across this link somewhere. 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