{"id":5289,"date":"2015-02-20T14:32:24","date_gmt":"2015-02-20T13:32:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=5289"},"modified":"2015-02-20T14:32:24","modified_gmt":"2015-02-20T13:32:24","slug":"one-thing-learnt-week-energy-outlook-2035","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=5289","title":{"rendered":"One thing we have learnt this week &#8211; energy outlook 2035"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/wind-turbine-in-France-from-below-blades.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-3566\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/wind-turbine-in-France-from-below-blades-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"wind turbine in France from below blades\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/wind-turbine-in-France-from-below-blades-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/wind-turbine-in-France-from-below-blades.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>BP produces two important energy documents a year, the &#8220;Statistical Review of World Energy&#8221; and the &#8220;Energy outlook&#8221;.\u00a0 The energy outlook has just been published looking forward to 2035.\u00a0 This post will pick out some of the most salient points and make some comments on them.<\/p>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li>BP see energy demand rising inexorably.\u00a0 They say that global population will be 1.6 billion higher in 2035 and these people will need at least some energy.\u00a0 Thus energy demand will rise almost 40% over the next 20 years.\u00a0 My view is this is broadly correct, global population will not have peaked in 20 years and it seems a likely value.\u00a0 The BP energy outlook examines the economics behind this data which I have ignored.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li>The energy outlook 2035 prediction of where this energy demand growth comes from is very interesting.\u00a0 It looks like energy demand has peaked in the developed world.\u00a0 All future growth comes from the developing world.\u00a0 This is something this blog has covered before.\u00a0 Again this seems likely but is predicated on off-shoring and globalisation.\u00a0 With peak oil this will go into reverse and may reverse this trend in both the developed and developing world.\u00a0 At the same time this growth in energy demand is slowing everywhere.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li>BP see where this energy is coming from changing.\u00a0 The <em><strong>share<\/strong><\/em> from coal and oil plunges, gas rises and renewables overtakes nuclear and hydro.\u00a0 Whilst the <em><strong>share<\/strong><\/em> of of coal and oil declines the total amount used is still growing overall (developed world only).\u00a0 BP still see a major role for oil and gas (funny that) and probably underestimate renewables contribution (most people have in the past).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li>On costs they give a wide range but solar could be competitive with onshore wind, gas and coal by 2035.\u00a0 Nuclear is not even compared!\u00a0 Again this is conservative on solar.\u00a0 Once solar hits grid parity which is close in many countries its growth will be explosive meaning costs plummet further.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li>One of the most interesting predictions in the Energy outlook 2035 is around shale oil and gas.\u00a0 BP think the contribution made by these will be negligible except in the USA.\u00a0 This is down to social and geological factors.\u00a0 Like the IEA BP think that US shale oil will go into decline soon but gas won\u2019t.\u00a0 I\u2019m not sure I agree about US gas production, but its hard to argue with their overall view.\u00a0 Shale is never going to happen in most places.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li>The most worrying finding is that carbon emissions rise 25% by 2035.\u00a0 They have to be falling long before this to stand any chance of limiting any increase to 2\u00baC.\u00a0 The reasons for this predicted failure are insufficient penetration of renewables in my view.\u00a0 One piece of good news from the energy outlook is that energy efficiency is rising and making an increasing contribution<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Overall can we meet all this increasing energy demand from fossil fuels?\u00a0 It seems unlikely.\u00a0 Peak oil is not dead merely sleeping.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>BP produces two important energy documents a year, the &#8220;Statistical Review of World Energy&#8221; and the &#8220;Energy outlook&#8221;.\u00a0 The energy outlook has just been published looking forward to 2035.\u00a0 This post will pick out some of the most salient points &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=5289\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,33,30,12,25,17,28,3,4,1],"tags":[92,269,275,91,49,34,57,61,63],"class_list":["post-5289","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-climate-change","category-coal","category-fracking","category-gas","category-nuclear","category-one-thing-we-have-learnt-this-week","category-other","category-peak-oil","category-renewables","category-uncategorized","tag-92","tag-climate-change","tag-coal","tag-energy-outlook","tag-nuclear-power","tag-oil-prices","tag-peak-oil-2","tag-renewable-energy","tag-renewables-2"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>One thing we have learnt this week - energy outlook 2035 - The oil lamp - shining God&#039;s light on peak oil<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"BP produces two important energy documents a year, the &quot;Statistical Review of World Energy&quot; 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