{"id":5791,"date":"2015-06-12T12:02:43","date_gmt":"2015-06-12T11:02:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=5791"},"modified":"2015-06-12T12:02:43","modified_gmt":"2015-06-12T11:02:43","slug":"one-thing-we-have-learnt-this-week-future-oil-and-gas-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=5791","title":{"rendered":"One thing we have learnt this week- future oil and gas prices"},"content":{"rendered":"

Its a brave person or\u00a0organization that attempts to predict future oil and gas prices.\u00a0 One such body is the Office for budget responsibility (OBR).\u00a0 Set up by the last Tory led coalition as a political wheeze, its proving quite useful criticising the current government of the UK when it feels its necessary.\u00a0 As its name implies it makes budget predictions and as part of these it must consider oil and gas prices and hence revenues from UK oil and gas production (mostly but no entirely in the North Sea).\u00a0 Until recently the tax income from this was an important source of tax revenue.\u00a0 No longer.\u00a0 Oil production hit a peak in 1999 and will never recover.\u00a0 This and the falling oil price have decimated revenues (see below).\u00a0 However,\u00a0 what is of interest is the OBR in their latest report<\/a> do not see any quick recovery in oil or gas prices (see graph below).\u00a0 They also do not see any recovery in UK oil and gas production (also shown in the graphs below using OBR data).<\/p>\n

\"oil<\/a><\/p>\n

See this graph below lifted from the OBR report below which shows long term projections for the oil price.<\/p>\n

\"obr<\/a><\/p>\n

The lower oil and gas prices and falling production has had a calamitous effect on revenues.\u00a0 Between now and 2020\/1-2040\/1 the tax revenue from the North Sea could be as little as \u00a32 billion or even -\u00a35 billion.\u00a0 This last last figure raises an important problem.\u00a0 As the rigs come to the end of their life they need decommissioning.\u00a0 The exact cost is unknown, but very high.\u00a0 One estimate is as much as \u00a332 billion<\/a>.\u00a0 It looks like the North Sea is entering a phase of making a huge loss.<\/p>\n

Neil<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Its a brave person or\u00a0organization that attempts to predict future oil and gas prices.\u00a0 One such body is the Office for budget responsibility (OBR).\u00a0 Set up by the last Tory led coalition as a political wheeze, its proving quite useful … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,17,3],"tags":[120],"class_list":["post-5791","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-costs","category-one-thing-we-have-learnt-this-week","category-peak-oil","tag-oil-and-gas-prices"],"yoast_head":"\nOne thing we have learnt this week- future oil and gas prices - The oil lamp - shining God's light on peak oil<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Its a brave person or organisation that attempts to predict future oil and gas prices.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=5791\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=5791\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=5791\",\"name\":\"One thing we have learnt this week- future oil and gas prices - 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