{"id":7267,"date":"2016-10-21T15:45:39","date_gmt":"2016-10-21T14:45:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=7267"},"modified":"2016-10-21T15:45:39","modified_gmt":"2016-10-21T14:45:39","slug":"one-thing-learnt-week-weather-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=7267","title":{"rendered":"One thing we have learnt this week – weather prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Rub_al_Khali_002\"<\/a>This week I heard a short radio interview on weather prediction.\u00a0 The Metoffice in the UK are trying to use the North Atlantic Oscillation<\/a> to predict the winter weather.\u00a0 Weather prediction is nothing new, people have been bending twigs and staring at birds, cows etc for years.\u00a0 Up until now the scientific world has had about as much success and accuracy in weather prediction.\u00a0 In the words of Bruce Cockburn “history repeats itself but its never the same”.\u00a0\u00a0 You could say the same about the weather.\u00a0 In principle you should be able to look at past patterns and see if they offer clues to the current weather.\u00a0 This is what the Metoffice have been trying using the North Atlantic Oscillation which appears to determine whether we in the UK have a mild or hard winter.\u00a0 They reckon to have got to the stage of a 60% accurate prediction 1 year ahead.<\/p>\n

This got me thinking about whether this has any relevance to energy use.\u00a0 Many people have thought that climate change might make the UK warmer and therefore may have some benefits. \u00a0 My minister is one of these people (at least in the past).\u00a0 The problem is that this may not be the case.\u00a0 Our summers maybe wetter and if the gulf stream shifts our winters maybe colder.\u00a0 Or milder\/colder depending on the North Atlantic Oscillation<\/a>.\u00a0 The problem is no one can say at the moment, but it would be useful to know as soon as possible.\u00a0 The UK’s buildings are badly insulated as it is and a programme of insulation on a mass scale might well be required.\u00a0 The type of renewable energy systems we choose might vary depending on the future and the grid may need reinforcement depending on the type of weather we are going to face.<\/p>\n

Neil<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This week I heard a short radio interview on weather prediction.\u00a0 The Metoffice in the UK are trying to use the North Atlantic Oscillation to predict the winter weather.\u00a0 Weather prediction is nothing new, people have been bending twigs and … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7267","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-climate-change","category-one-thing-we-have-learnt-this-week"],"yoast_head":"\nOne thing we have learnt this week - weather prediction - The oil lamp - shining God's light on peak oil<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=7267\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=7267\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=7267\",\"name\":\"One thing we have learnt this week - 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