{"id":7417,"date":"2017-01-18T21:34:54","date_gmt":"2017-01-18T20:34:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=7417"},"modified":"2017-01-18T21:34:54","modified_gmt":"2017-01-18T20:34:54","slug":"new-years-predictions-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=7417","title":{"rendered":"New years predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"new<\/a>Its common to make some new years predictions at this time of year so whilst its a bit late here goes.<\/p>\n

1) the big story of the year will be (apart from Trump) automation.\u00a0 Trump wants to effectively to end globalisation and bring back jobs.\u00a0 This in itself will be very difficult to achieve but apart from globalisation automation is making this harder.\u00a0 By automation I mean not just robots but also “intelligent” algorithms.\u00a0 An insurance company sacked 10 people the other week and replaced them with a computer which interacts with customers to offer them the best deal.\u00a0 Expect more of this moving up the income scale with a lot of concerned talk about it this year.<\/p>\n

2) Following and heavily related to this are driverless cars and drones, expect to hear a lot more about this in 2017.\u00a0 A boon or a menace?\u00a0 Driverless vehicles will certainly will lay off millions of drivers in the long term if they succeed.\u00a0 As a cyclist I can hardly wait to start sharing the road with these.\u00a0 Will Amazon get its delivery drones in the air this year?\u00a0 This is an incredibly stupid idea and will end up killing people.<\/p>\n

All of the automation relies on the idea of cheap limitless energy.\u00a0 Even if you assume that robots use less energy and laid off staff no longer commute, the unemployed workers are not going to use zero energy sitting at home watching daytime TV.\u00a0 Does a delivery drone use less energy than a van delivering multiple parcels in one round?\u00a0 I don’t know but I doubt if there is much in it.<\/p>\n

3) The next of my new years predictions is we will hear a lot more about the idea of the universal basic income<\/a> this year.\u00a0 Trials are going ahead in Finland and Holland with small scale trails moated in Scotland.\u00a0 Whilst I am a firm supporter I do not think like many of its proponents this is a solution to automation (unless you tax robots which seems to defeat the point of them).\u00a0 The reason I support it are multiple, but one reason is the current social security system is not fit for purpose.<\/p>\n

4)\u00a0 Solar PV installation will continue to soar worldwide.\u00a0 There is no stopping renewables now its mainstream.\u00a0 This will be despite Trump trying to sabotage the Paris agreement and bring back coal and fracking.\u00a0 Renewable energy is becoming cheap nothing can stop it.<\/p>\n

5) Politics will continue in its unpredictable and much more extreme form.\u00a0 As a push back against much of the above voters will go in large numbers for extreme nationalist parties pedalling simplistic lies.\u00a0 As the annual richfest starts at Davos the global elite* claim to get this but don’t<\/a>.<\/p>\n

6) Christians by and large will continue to ignore the environment and the global warming crisis.\u00a0 (Safest prediction of the lot).<\/p>\n

Neil<\/p>\n

*I would like to point out in brexit terms the elite campaigned on both sides and I voted remain.\u00a0 See the end of the sentence before this.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Its common to make some new years predictions at this time of year so whilst its a bit late here goes. 1) the big story of the year will be (apart from Trump) automation.\u00a0 Trump wants to effectively to end … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7417","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nNew years predictions - The oil lamp - shining God's light on peak oil<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=7417\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=7417\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=7417\",\"name\":\"New years predictions - 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