{"id":8037,"date":"2018-05-02T14:25:40","date_gmt":"2018-05-02T13:25:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=8037"},"modified":"2018-05-02T14:25:40","modified_gmt":"2018-05-02T13:25:40","slug":"weather-getting-worse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=8037","title":{"rendered":"Is the weather getting worse?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"module<\/a>Is the weather getting worse?!\u00a0 This is the question I have pondering for somewhile.\u00a0 What I mean by this is it getting duller.\u00a0 I have had two PV systems on my roof for some years and the output is dropping year on year.\u00a0 There are 3 possible reasons I have come up for this.<\/p>\n

The first is that there is something wrong with the PV’s.\u00a0 PV efficiency does indeed fall very slowly and the modules have a 20-25 year guarantee against power loss.\u00a0 This is very low even after 25 years and in fact studies have shown the actual declines in efficiency are much lower than the module’s guarantee.\u00a0 I know its not this since this February one system had a record output for that month (even higher than the computer prediction).\u00a0 Most years I get such months for either system.<\/p>\n

My favourite theory until recently was my neighbours tree (and to be fair one of mine).\u00a0 My neighbours tree is a birch bought from a supermarket for \u00a32.50.\u00a0 Over 20 years it has grown from a few cm to 6 stories.\u00a0 Its much too big for the garden blocks her and our light and she has said she will have it taken down.\u00a0 My Scots Pine (far older) which it yomped past is about 4 stories high, this also blocks our light (I probably would not be allowed to take it down).\u00a0 Again I still get record output now and again and in summer when the sun is high in the sky so the problem from either is not that great when there is max power output.\u00a0 PV output is greatly impacted by trees and buildings and is difficult to predict.<\/p>\n

The last theory is that raised by this blog is the weather getting worse?\u00a0 By that I mean is getting more cloudy?\u00a0 Its very hard to be sure since this data if its kept at all is kept by the met office.\u00a0 There is some logic to this though.\u00a0 We know that climate change is heating the atmosphere.\u00a0 This pushes more water vapour into it.\u00a0 These form clouds and make the weather more dull as well as causing many more torrential downpours (interestingly I think we are getting less of these). As well as this the gulf stream is weakening<\/a> this will make UK weather different with colder winters and hotter summers.\u00a0 I want to test this theory using a paired test but I have odd numbers of data.\u00a0 Missing one year out would introduce bias so I will will wait till the end of the year to see if the rate of fall is significant.<\/p>\n

The implications of this are that predicted PV output might be lower than thought.\u00a0 Is is balanced by higher efficiency modules (this is constantly creeping up).\u00a0 The techno solution might be to use modules that work cross spectrum, on a bright cloudy day they work as well as a sunny one.<\/p>\n

Neil<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Is the weather getting worse?!\u00a0 This is the question I have pondering for somewhile.\u00a0 What I mean by this is it getting duller.\u00a0 I have had two PV systems on my roof for some years and the output is dropping … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,28,4,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8037","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-climate-change","category-other","category-renewables","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nIs the weather getting worse? - The oil lamp - shining God's light on peak oil<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=8037\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=8037\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.theoillamp.co.uk\/?p=8037\",\"name\":\"Is the weather getting worse? 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