Many years ago I was at polytechnic and a young woman on my course was Iranian exile from the 1979 revolution. Its always slightly puzzled me since she was devout, although not fundamentalist Moslem, who as a Christian I tried to convert without success. She may have stuck to her faith, but at the same time she loathed the regime that replaced the Shah. I\u2019ve thought about her over the last few weeks wondering what happened to her. I\u2019m sure she didn\u2019t go back to Iran and I hope she built a happy life here in the UK.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s been difficult to write about the war that ravages in the middle east including her homeland up until now since its been fast moving and its not been clear precisely how it will end. But almost a month in there are some conclusions we can draw. The first is that sadly at the moment it looks like the regime, which influenced by my fellow students attitude as well what its been up to since 1979 I also loathe. But unlike Trump and Bibi I don\u2019t believe an air campaign is going to get rid of them that easily*. The main danger is that a damaged and in many ways more dangerous regime will remain which knows it has two aces up its sleeve. The first is the more distant desire to develop nuclear weapons, the second more immediate is the stranglehold of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n
At the moment we face higher natural gas prices, higher fertilizer and food prices and of course higher oil prices. Along with these go prices of anything of oil in them, which is more or less anything \u2013 especially plastics. All this we outlined in our book. Since Iran has managed to damage a considerable number of gas and oil installations in the middle east \u2013 particularly natural gas production facilities in Qatar \u2013 it looks like higher prices and shortages in some countries are here to stay.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m old enough to remember the 1973\/79 oil crisis’s. After these the world began to make a number of changes. Cars were made more efficient. Diesels (for better or worse) were reintroduced. There was an explosion of interest in renewables, with the first wind turbines being developed. There was a boom in solar hot water especially in Japan. Solar PV innovation started. There was a start on improving the energy efficiency in buildings.<\/p>\n
In all this we outside the middle east need to remember we\u2019re facing high prices. People in Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE etc. are facing death and injury as well as destruction.<\/p>\n
This time we\u2019ve started the job of moving away from fossil fuels and unlike then have the tools to finish the job.<\/p>\n
* While I think the war is a mistake, with inflation at 60% in Iran before the war it doesn\u2019t seem likely that the regime will (hopefully) last that much longer. But it still could be years \u2013 just unlikely to be another 47.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Many years ago I was at polytechnic and a young woman on my course was Iranian exile from the 1979 revolution. Its always slightly puzzled me since she was devout, although not fundamentalist Moslem, who as a Christian I tried … Continue reading