Climate and food

The Observer newspaper had a apocalyptic headline last Sunday “Millions face starvation as world warms, say scientists”.  The newspaper had been talking to some climate scientists in advance of a couple of food security conferences.  What they have to say was very worrying.

  • Africa will be worst hit, Egypt will lose 15% of its Wheat production if temperatures rise 2C.  Sub-Saharan Africa will face a 5-22% decline in crop yields.
  • Europe; will produce 20% less Wheat, 30% less rice and  47% less maize.  Yes Northern areas like Scotland and Russia will become more fertile but Russia will face increasing forest fires.  in any case no country is an an island and higher prices will affect everywhere.
  • Americas; Brazil 20% decline in soya production, in California a 10-30% decline in tomato, rice, cotton, Maize and sunflowers by 2050.
  • Asia, basic foodstuff production insufficient by 2030 in China.  Malnourishment up by up to 11m in south east Asia.

All this means a huge rise in food insecurity.  Some of the projected falls are not that big, but mask higher demand partly due to higher population.  The projected rise in food costs is 40-50% by 2050 but this takes no account of climate change or peak oil, only population and rising incomes.  The energy embedded in food is huge and we’ve seen from last summer how unreliable our climate can be.  Droughts in the US and floods in Europe caused the biggest crop losses for decades.  I’m talking about all this at the weekend at the Eco-congregation Scotland annual gathering.  The future is worrying.

Neil

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One thing we have learnt this week

Who said this?  some raving lefty presumably…

“”While the conventional, political dangers – the threat of global annihilation, the fact of regional war – appear to be receding, we have all recently become aware of another insidious danger. It is as menacing in its way as those more accustomed perils with which international diplomacy has concerned itself for centuries. It is the prospect of irretrievable damage to the atmosphere, to the oceans, to earth itself.

What we are now doing to the world, by degrading the land surfaces, by polluting the waters and by adding greenhouse gases to the air at an unprecedented rate – all this is new in the experience of the earth. It is mankind and his activities that are changing the environment of our planet in damaging and dangerous ways.

The result is that change in future is likely to be more fundamental and more widespread than anything we have known hitherto. Change to the sea around us, change to the atmosphere above, leading in turn to change in the world’s climate, which could alter the way we live in the most fundamental way of all. That prospect is a new factor in human affairs. It is comparable in its implications to the discovery of how to split the atom. Indeed, its results could be even more far-reaching.

The evidence is there. The damage is being done. What do we, the international community, do about it?

In some areas, the action required is primarily for individual nations or groups of nations to take. But the problem of global climate change is one that affects us all and action will only be effective if it is taken at the international level. It is no good squabbling over who is responsible or who should pay. We have to look forward not backward, and we shall only succeed in dealing with the problems through a vast international, co-operative effort.

The environmental challenge that confronts the whole world demands an equivalent response from the whole world. Every country will be affected and no one can opt out. Those countries who are industrialised must contribute more to help those who are not.

The work ahead will be long and exacting. We should embark on it hopeful of success, not fearful of failure. Darwin’s voyages were among the high-points of scientific discovery. They were undertaken at a time when men and women felt growing confidence that we could not only understand the natural world but we could master it, too. Today, we have learned rather more humility and respect for the balance of nature. But another of the beliefs of Darwin’s era should help to see us through – the belief in reason and the scientific method.

Reason is humanity’s special gift. It allows us to understand the structure of the nucleus. It enables us to explore the heavens. It helps us to conquer disease. Now we must use our reason to find a way in which we can live with nature, and not dominate nature.

We need our reason to teach us today that we are not – that we must not try to be – the lords of all we survey.

We are not the lords, we are the Lord’s creatures, the trustees of this planet, charged today with preserving life itself – preserving life with all its mystery and all its wonder.

May we all be equal to that task.”

Actually in the week where everyone’s scrapping over her legacy it was Mrs Thatcher.  I remember this speech being made.  People couldn’t say she went green, but that she went emerald.  This speech as I remember had an enormous effect.  As Jonathan Porrit says

It wasn’t until Mrs Thatcher went into her short-lived green period that things really took off (for the green movement). “Before Mrs Thatcher started to talk about the ozone layer and climate change, lots of people said: ‘These green issues are just for weirdos treehugging. But if Mrs Thatcher’s saying something like that – there must be something in it’.

In her memoirs she at least partially recanted, but however cynical you are about timing (the Greens were high in the polls) she helped green issues go mainstream.  With all her other many faults that at least is something in my view.

Neil

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books back on stock

The wholesaler ran out of our book again, but its back in stock.  Bulkbuy books and others now have stocks again.  A few days ago someone I know had trouble purchasing a copy.

Neil

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book excerpt

“There is no doubt that oil brings comfort and convenience to our lives today. However, our over-dependence on it has produced a way of living in which we are less dependent on one another and our relationship with creation is broken. Our energy addicted lifestyles provide so many options and ways to be busy that we often have little time for God – arguably making our oil-dependence a form of idolatry. Jesus’ parable of the wise and foolish virgins in Matthew chapter 25 has a micro-story of oil depletion as its theme – the foolish characters used up all their lamp-oil and were distracted when they should have been ready for the bridegroom’s arrival. It’s not difficult to extract from this story a relevant principle about our need to husband scarce resources carefully. Another Biblical example of planning ahead and conserving supplies is the story of Joseph in Genesis chapter 40-45. Rescued from prison because of his ability to interpret dreams, he is put in charge of Egypt’s efforts to store up grain in seven good years, preparing ahead for the seven years of famine. In our analysis of the world today, we are still enjoying the years of plenty in an oil-fuelled bubble of prosperity. Are we ready to face the lean years to come?”

Chapter 2. No oil in the lamp”.

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Climate gone crazy

Andy did a blog post a few weeks ago on a warning from the UK chief scientist as he retired about the dangers of climate change.  At the weekend there was a very interesting article in the Observer (on our FB wall) about the weather we have had in the UK over the last three years.  We have always had very changeable weather in the UK.  We are right next to the Atlantic of another landmass Europe (which many seem to forget) and have weather systems that come from the Arctic and Russia (which is pretty much the next stop in some directions).  Someone from the middle of Canada told me once that the weather changed very slowly there.  If you saw a cloud you’d see it in the sky for days.  I don’t know whether this is true, but in the UK we are used to changeable weather.  We don’t get four seasons in one day but three is possible. This makes us talk about it obsessively even though in the past its not been extreme.

So we have been used to changeable weather.  But what has happened over the last decade and a half or so has been something else.  When looking back on when you were young there is a tendency to over romanticise and remember only the good weather.  The summers were always hot and the winters were always snowy.  This wasn’t actually true I’m sure.  We had a famously hot summer with a very bad drought in 1976.  There was water rationing.  That summer we went on holiday to the south of France (which was normally very hot).  When we returned my parents lawn was completely brown and dead.  Then the government made Denis Powell minister for the drought and it rained a few days later.  The lawn recovered so fast, greening overnight.  However, in those days it rained steadily in winter with some snow.  You could get snow in even March/April and we had something vaguely like a summer.

Viburnum leaves in autumn
Viburnum leaves in autumn

Fast forward to the mid nineties in Scotland and I see the weather pattern really start to change.  In noticed when I had a garden with two plants in particular.  One a climbing Hydrangea and the other a Viburnum.  Both when we starting living here would start going into their Autumnal colours almost exactly at the end of August.  By the end of September all the leaves would be gone.

By the millennium this didn’t happen.  The leaves on these and all the trees around would stay on to an extent until November.  The picture above was taken on the 20th October last year as you can see the leaves are just starting to change.  In about five years my growing season had extended by at least a month.  It has continued this way.  At the same time the weather got warmer but wetter in summer.  About 2005 we noticed we were getting very heavy localised downpours especially in the spring, much more frequently.  Our gutters and downpipes couldn’t cope with the amount of water.  The basement of my church flooded one Saturday afternoon.

The weather has continued to change.  The winters had become so warm I can remember instances of not needing the heating on.  Then in the winter of 2008/9 was extremely cold.  The temperature almost everywhere didn’t rise above -6 degrees C for 6 weeks.  The next winter was the same with a prolonged cold snap shorter (only a month) but with lots more snow.  There was a brief thaw for a few hours on Saturday in the middle.  That when we and half our city lost our gutters as the half metre of snow that had collected rolled down the roof and took the gutters with it.  The next winter reverted to being fairly mild, but this one has been cold with snow even April something outside the memory of most of us.

More weather weirdness has followed.  Last year we had the second wettest year ever after a very dry winter, large parts of England had a hosepipe ban going into the spring of 2012.  This is another strange thing – very dry winters with no rain.  A few years ago my Apple tree’s new spring leaves turned yellow and almost all dropped of due to lack of water in April!  In late March last year we sat out in our T-shirts reading in the garden.  The temperature was in the 20’s.  Parts of the garden were so dry plants were wilting. Then the temperature dropped 24 degrees C in 24 hours and it started snowing.  Then it started raining and didn’t stop much until the Autumn (it did clear up for the Olympics).  Whilst America had a drought we had places that had never flooded, flooding more than once in the same “summer”.  At the same time the heavy isolated short showers have stopped.  The rain is now heavy and continuous.

The worrying thing is that this maybe related to man made climate change.  This weather in the US and UK last year and Pakistan and Russia previously is due to the Jetstream.  This band of air moves from West to East between the Arctic and tropics and is slowing down and meandering.  Its traps weather systems beneath it when it does so.  For us and the US its been trapping the wrong ones.  The theory is this maybe due to the melting Arctic ice sheet in summer.  This is a very worrying theory.  Food production in the US and UK was devastated.

As Christians we need to take our responsibilities to creation seriously.  The only comment I will allow myself to make on Mrs Thatcher was that she fully accepted the science of climate change.  Sir John Houghton (an evangelical Christian) recounted how he was sent to Downing street with a flip chart to explain it to her.

Neil

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One thing we have learnt this week

The political right has been fighting back against a variety of green measures this week. I’ve heard two people interviewed that have dropped into quite unrelated interviews that energy prices are high because of green measures or the poorly paid are poor due to high energy prices due to greenery. This is untrue. In 2011 my gas price went up by 30%. This massive increase had nothing to do with the FIT or green deal or anything else. It was caused by a huge increase in the wholesale cost of gas which increasingly we have to import. The poor are poor because they are unemployed or in low paid jobs, the remedies are obvious people need work. Giving the low paid a living wage would not only allow them to pay their energy bills, it would put money back in the economy, increase tax revenue and cut government spending since the low paid have their wages subsidised by the state through tax credits. Yes that’s right many of the worlds biggest multinationals can come here and pay low wages subsidised by the state.

Anyway back to energy bills, DECC has released analysis showing currently green measures add 9% to the average bill. It much more difficult to explain that green measures will add to bills over the next 17 years, but they would have been higher without them. DECC hasn’t made a good job of this. I will have a go. Essentially the cost of the measure be it insulation or solar PV is fixed at the time of installation. The cost you pay to heat your house say using a gas boiler is not fixed its constantly rising due to the cost of gas rising. Therefore within reason* some measures that will appear to have a poor pay back may be more economic than you would think. The full document can be seen here .  Some of the document is implausible, for example DECC think energy prices are going to rise 6% by 2020.  The expected increase this year is at least that.

* it has to be said many of the green deal measures identified in the radio 4 programme “You and yours” had such small savings payback looked unlikely, or at least very slow.

Neil

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Aftermath: World Without Oil

I recently was looking for music videos and found a documentary made in 2010 which looks at peak oil (quite out of place in that section of the well known video site).  It does so from the unusual and extreme perspective that all the oil left in the ground vanishes overnight.  At first I found this premise unrealistic and annoying, its more reminiscent of the plot of a feature film or sci-fi novel.  However, as a means of pointing up our addiction to the black stuff it works quite well once you have got used to the idea.

The film looks at the world (mostly America) a few days, weeks, months, 10 years and forty years after the sudden disappearance of the oil.  I won’t go through the scenarios as they play out in case you do want to watch it- but pull out of the broad themes.   What is surprising is how much it gets right.  I know I shouldn’t be surprised but I am.

For example we cannot substitute biofuels for oil in sufficient quantities to provide for all  transport.  In addition a choice has to be made between eating and driving.  In the end algae is used to provide biodiesel for essential transport and a limited number of vehicles run on electricity.  This is broadly what we say in our book.

The issue of growing food without oil is addressed reasonably well.  At the end its not clear how the food system does plow and distribute food although its made clear that every house with land is growing as much as they can and streets, carparks and buildings look like the hanging gardens of Babylon (some good CGI work here).

World Without Oil also captures the change in culture well with globalisation over and food and power distribution failing people are collecting and recycling anything they can get their hands on to trade and moving to a very localised economy.  The oil dependency of everything in everyday use is shown.  Natural gas is used as a substitute to make plastics (for medical supplies), but along with coal by the end of the film is starting to run out-leaving questions about how to replace them.

There are some things left out.  Whilst there is mention of much reduced pollution, there is mention of climate change throughout.  There is no mention of renewables (or nuclear) throughout.  A big problem for conventional power plants is that most of the means of getting fuel to them involves oil.  This includes nuclear which as we point out in our book is highly oil dependent (the person who put the comment on Imdb saying nukes in Florida would not be affected is wrong).  However, the purported power cuts would have been mitigated by renewables to an extent in the US and some countries wouldn’t have noticed much in terms of electricity (Norway).  There is also no mention of micro-generation in the 10 and 40 years scenario.  This is surprising since it would offer people a way out to an extent from higher prices and bring some energy security.  No mention of how and how well the worlds economies function (apart from Saudi Arabia which doesn’t).

The final thing left out is how community would be built.  Small groups of friends are shown cooperating on various schemes (one involves stealing) and there is implied community action in the urban farming but it would have been nice to see more on this vital area of surviving peak oil.  This is where the church could really score.

Of course the oil is not suddenly going to run out.  The effects are insidious.  But the early signs are there.  Higher prices, volatile prices of oil, gas, food etc.  Globalisation starting to go into reverse. The question is are we going to ignore the signs or cooperate and find a way through.

Neil

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march on the farm

Valerie Comer has written a blog post on what’s going on her farm. Well worth a read.

Neil

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Record renewables production

Well the 2012 renewables data is in for the UK and despite the weather, or because of it there was record production. That and a huge increase in capacity. As you can see we have good mix. Just not enough.

 

2009

2010

2011

2012 p

Cumulative Installed Capacity 1

MW

Onshore Wind

3,483

4,037

4,650

5,875

Offshore Wind

941

1,341

1,838

2,996

Shoreline wave / tidal

2

3

3

6

Solar photovoltaics

27

77

976

1,655

Small scale Hydro

179

188

205

217

Large scale Hydro

1,459

1,453

1,471

1,471

Landfill gas

985

1,025

1,067

1,068

Sewage sludge digestion

157

186

198

199

Municipal solid waste combustion

418

461

577

609

Animal Biomass (non-AD)

111

111

111

111

Anaerobic Digestion

9

28

55

82

Plant Biomass

300

330

1,159

1,191

Total

8,069

9,238

12,310

15,479

Co-firing

208

266

338

208

 

Source DECC

As for production.

 

Generation

GWh

Onshore Wind

7,564

7,137

10,372

11,915

Offshore Wind

1,740

3,044

5,126

7,463

Shoreline wave / tidal

1

2

1

4

Solar photovoltaics

20

33

252

1,327

Hydro

5,241

3,644

5,686

5,227

Landfill gas

4,952

5,014

4,979

5,221

Sewage sludge digestion

598

698

755

723

Biodegradable municipal solid waste combustion

1,509

1,597

1,739

2,286

Co-firing with fossil fuels

1,625

2,332

2,964

1,818

Animal Biomass (non-AD)

637

627

614

620

Anaerobic Digestion

30

92

239

330

Plant Biomass

1,343

1,624

1,683

4,206

Total

25,259

25,845

34,410

41,140

Non-biodegradable wastes

873

924

1,005

1,319

Source DECC

The standouts are obviously photovoltaics but also biomass (although I have concerns about the sustainability of at least some of the wood used). Offshore wind is another one. Its noticeable just how much more productive it is compared to onshore. A puzzle in such a wet year is why hydro output fell. We are going in the right direction with increasing speed but not fast enough…

Neil

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Greenhouse data 2012

The provisional greenhouse figures for 2012 have just been released by DECC. The figures are disappointing despite what will be a record year for renewable energy production.

 

Electricity production by source from DECC

Electricity production by source from DECC

Greenhouse gases as a total increased 3.5% year on year over 2011 and Carbon dioxide by 4.5%. Almost every sector increased its emissions. Business, residential and the power sectors by large amounts. The first quarter of 2012 was fairly mild but the 4th quarter was colder than the equivalent one in 2011 so this may explain the increase in the figures for the residential sector.

The big increase in the energy sector can be explained by the big increase in coal fired power production. There was a huge drop in emissions due to natural gas, but a socking 29% increase in emissions due to coal. The power generators have been using the inter-connectors where possible, coal and as little gas as possible. Without record renewable production electricity emissions would have been worse. Other sectors have stood still or dropped slightly. One of these is transport where emissions edged down. People are driving less as this blog has covered before. Its possible a decrease in car travel was undone by a continuing increase in public transport use such as trains (also covered by this blog).

There are some successes, there has been a huge drop due to forestry and land use since 1990 although the last few years have seen increases. Emissions due to agriculture are low but standing still and the public sector has also cut its CO2 as have industrial processes.

So what’s going to happen this year? I was surprised to read that SSE are closing gas fired power stations as well as coal ones. They are not economic to run. The very cold first quarter does not give on confidence that energy use in the residential sector is going to fall. Counterbalanced against this there will be even higher renewable electricity production this year a new record for sure and the closure of a number of coal fired power stations. Perhaps no change year on year?

Neil

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